41 power plants in the country are completely shut down due to fuel crisis and repairs. Most of the operating plants are not able to generate electricity according to capacity. In this situation, production is also being disrupted in industrial areas outside the capital. The situation in villages is even worse. In some places, electricity is going on for hours. In some places, it does not come even for a few hours. People are suffering greatly due to the intense heat.

Distribution company sources said that load shedding has recently surpassed all previous records. On average, about 3,000 megawatts of load shedding is taking place. A new record has been broken in just 10 hours. The highest load shedding at 3 pm on Sunday was 3,671 megawatts. At 1 am, it increased to 3,757 megawatts. Earlier, at 1 am on August 3, the highest load shedding was 3,512 megawatts. During the Awami League government, the highest load shedding was 3,419 megawatts on June 27, 2023.

The main reason for the load shedding is gas shortage. Power plants are receiving less than one-third of the gas they need. This is coupled with a coal supply crisis. As a result, there is a major shortage in power generation.

No gas, closed power plants

A large part of the country’s power generation is still gas-dependent. As a result, a shortage in gas supply directly affects power generation.

According to Petrobangla, the daily gas demand of the country’s gas-based power plants is about 2.52 billion cubic feet. At least 100 to 110 billion cubic feet of gas is required to control load shedding. But currently only 700 million cubic feet are being supplied to the power plants. That is, the plants are receiving less than one-third of the gas they need. 41 power plants have been completely shut down due to fuel shortages and repairs. Most of the plants that are operating are running at partial capacity.

Once, about 5,000 megawatts of electricity were generated from gas. Now it has come down to 3,500 to 4,000 megawatts. A few days ago, gas-based power generation was close to 5,500 megawatts. As a result, although there is power generation capacity and infrastructure, it cannot be fully utilized due to lack of fuel.

LNG terminal has not returned to full capacity

The big blow to the gas crisis came on July 21. After the damage to Accelerate Energy’s floating LNG terminal in Maheshkhali, Cox’s Bazar, there has been a major shortage in gas supply.

After the terminal was damaged, about 600 million cubic feet of gas supply was reduced daily. The total gas supply in the country came down to about 214 million cubic feet. After 15 days, 250 million cubic feet of gas supply is being received through partial repairs. However, the terminal has not yet returned to full capacity.

Petrobangla Director (Operations) Engineer Md. Shoaib said that it may take two to three days to complete the repair of the terminal. If everything goes well, gas supply will increase this week. If the terminal is fully operational, it will be possible to increase gas supply by another 300 to 350 million cubic feet. This will create an opportunity to increase gas supply to power plants. However, this is not the end of the crisis. Domestic gas production is gradually decreasing. At the same time, dependence on imported LNG is increasing. Due to uncertainty in the international market, even a slight disruption in gas supply has a direct impact on the power sector.

Crisis in coal too

The power crisis has been exacerbated by the complexity of coal supply. Production at the 1,200 MW Patuakhali Thermal Power Plant has come down to half. Due to adverse weather conditions at sea, coal is being unloaded from large ships to small ships at Kutubdia. As a result, it takes extra time to reach the coal plant.

Power supply from Adani Power’s plant in Jharkhand, India, has also decreased. Although the plant supplies about 1,400 MW of electricity to Bangladesh, it has come down to 800 to 1,000 MW for a few days. Production is being disrupted due to the coal getting wet due to floods in Jharkhand. However, Adani Power has said that production at full capacity may be possible if coal supply normalizes on Tuesday.

The total capacity of coal-fired power plants in the country is currently about 7,945 MW. In contrast, the production is about 5,500 MW. Production has increased slightly as the Payra power plant unit is operational after maintenance. However, production has decreased in Rampal and Barapukuria. Two of the three units in Barapukuria are closed due to technical reasons.

People are suffering from power shortage

General consumers are having to pay the price for the shortage of power generation. In many areas, there is no power for 10 to 12 hours a day and night. In the intense heat, it has become difficult to operate fans-ACs or water pumps. Business and commerce, students’ studies and online work are being disrupted. Children, the elderly and the sick are suffering the most. In Sylhet, 202 MW of electricity was supplied against the demand of 247 MW on Monday. The deficit was 45 MW. The previous day, the deficit was 56 MW. Fed up with frequent load shedding in the intense heat, locals blocked the road in Sylhet’s Tuk Bazar on Sunday night and protested.

In Santahar, Bogra, there are also complaints of less than half the power supply compared to the demand. The load shedding increases after evening, disrupting medical care, education and business and commerce. The situation is also worrying in the industrial area. There was already a gas crisis. Coupled with this, the power shortage has created two-way pressure. Entrepreneurs said that when power goes out, the production line stops. When power comes back, it takes time to normalize the machine. Generators are forced to run to keep production running. This increases fuel costs. Production costs are also increasing.

Urge to increase gas

Coordination between the power and energy departments has been increased due to the increase in load shedding. Sources said that the power secretary called the chairman of Petrobangla and requested to increase gas allocation to power plants. Priority is being given to providing gas to plants that can quickly increase power supply to the national grid. Concerned officials say that if gas supply is increased, power production will also increase. This will make it possible to reduce load shedding. However, the gas supply situation is still not satisfactory.

Attempts to meet the shortage with oil

To address the gas and coal crisis, efforts are being made to increase production from expensive oil-based power plants. However, this increases production costs and the pressure of government subsidies. Apart from this, due to non-payment of arrears of private power plants, pressure has also been created to import fuel oil. PDB officials say that even if production from oil-based plants is increased to reduce power shortage, it is expensive to run it like this for a long time. Therefore, the most important thing now is to normalize gas and coal supply.

The situation may improve in two to three days

Power Development Board (PDB) Chairman Engineer Md. Rezaul Karim hopes that the power supply situation will improve somewhat in a day or two. He said that load shedding has increased due to disruption of coal supply in addition to the gas crisis. A meeting has been held with Patuakhali Thermal Power Plant and Adani Power in this regard.

On the other hand, Petrobangla officials say that if the LNG terminal is fully operational, gas supply may increase in two to three days. However, according to those concerned, the possibility of load shedding completely stopping is low. Because the demand for electricity increases when the temperature increases. As a result, if the fuel supply is not normal, it will be difficult to completely control load shedding.

A new explosion of an old problem

According to fuel experts, the current crisis is not sudden. The crisis has become more acute as a result of long-term mismanagement, declining domestic gas production, over-reliance on imported LNG, uncertainty in fuel supply and pressure from excess capacity in the power sector.

According to experts, even if load shedding can be reduced by temporarily supplying additional gas to a few power plants, it will not be a permanent solution. In the long term, it is necessary to reduce unreasonable costs, increase the use of solar power, ensure maximum use of coal-based plants, prevent wastage of gas and electricity, and emphasize the exploration of domestic gas.

Energy expert Professor M. Tamim said, “The country’s energy crisis is now the biggest problem. It is not possible to overcome this situation quickly. However, to keep the industrial and power sectors running, we must increase LNG imports and emphasize the exploration of domestic gas.”

Local infrastructure is also suffering

Along with the shortage in the national grid, the weakness of the local transmission system is also increasing the suffering. In Rupganj and Araihajar in Narayanganj, about 140 MW is being supplied against the demand of about 200 MW. There is a deficit of about 60 MW.

The construction of the 132/33 kV grid substation in Araihajar began in 2020. Although it was supposed to be commissioned in 2023, it has not yet been fully commissioned. If a specialized engineering team from Korea arrives, it may be possible to complete the remaining work within seven to 10 days.

If the new grid is commissioned, the pressure on the Bholata grid will be reduced. An alternative transmission route will be created. This may bring some relief to the local power supply system of Rupganj and Araihajar. However, if there is a production deficit in the national grid, it is not possible to completely stop load shedding by strengthening local infrastructure alone.